Google Plus Adoption
Allen: I project [surname-based analysis] that Google [Plus] will easily pass 10 million users tomorrow; http://eicker.at/GooglePlusAdoption
The Google Plus series: Circles, Sparks, Hangouts, Huddle – Reviews, Differences
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Gerrit Eicker
Gerrit Eicker 10:28 on 12. July 2011 Permalink |
Allen: “In brief, here is my model: The surname Cooke is the #996 most popular surname in the US. The Census Bureau estimates that there are 29844 Cookes in the US. I found 74 Cookes on Google+ so far. That would be .002479% of the total Cookes in the US. Taking the official current US population estimate of 311,677,540 and multiplying it by .00002479, you get 772,823 Google+ users, if all other surnames had the same distribution in the US as they do on Google+.”
Allen: “Today I squeezed in enough time before and after our local parade, and before our Fourth of July picnic to update my model and do a much better analysis. I increased the sample size from 50 surnames to 79 (I would have done 100 but ran out of time), and I split out users from the US and from outside the US. I had to look at hundreds of profiles to determine US vs. non-US.”
Allen: “My surname-based analysis shows that the number of Google+ users worldwide reached 7.3 million yesterday (July 10) – up from 1.7 million users on July 4th. That is a 350% increase in six days. The userbase is growing so quickly that it is challenging for me to keep up, since the number of users of any given surname (even the rare ones I am tracking) seems to be climbing every day. – More impressive than last week’s growth is the astonishing growth in users from yesterday at mid-day to tonight – a 30% jump. My latest estimate tonight shows approximately 9.5 million users. This suggests that 2.2 million people have joined Google+ in the past 32-34 hours. – I project that Google will easily pass 10 million users tomorrow and could reach 20 million user by this coming weekend if they keep the Invite Button available. As one G+ user put it, it is easy to underestimate the power of exponential growth.“
Gerrit Eicker 09:00 on 13. July 2011 Permalink |
Allen (in a comment): “My company is running a large survey of Facebook users (we have access to millions of Facebook users through our Facebook apps and fan pages) and I’ll be posting the results tomorrow. Facebook investors and employees will be very happy to see that the vast majority of their active users are happy at Facebook, and most of them haven’t even heard of Google+ yet. So even though Google’s growth is staggering, there is a huge loyal Facebook following who may not see a need to switch. That’s why I characterize this as a 15-round heavyweight bout. The fight is not going to be over anytime soon.”
RWW: “Google Plus’s estimated 20 million also pales in comparison to Facebook’s 750 million, half of which still log on to Facebook any given day. Google Plus, meanwhile, is seeing a lot of engagement too, but it’s still the new shiny toy of the Internet digerati, who often glom onto and obsess over the latest hip service until an even hipper one comes around. – But Google knows it needs to make Google Plus a regular habit once the new car smell wears off. According to Mark Striebeck, Google’s Engineering Manager for Gmail, the company is planning to integrate the service into Gmail (and wants your ideas for that). While Google’s previous attempt at merging social with Gmail (i.e. Google Buzz) was essentially a failure, Gmail could still serve as a large built-in user base for the emerging social network, assuming the integrations are thoughtful, useful and capable of enhancing the core Gmail offering itself. … Current estimates put the Gmail user base at around 200 million. Although not all Gmail users will join Google Plus, it’s a large, captive market for Google to get its hooks in.”
VB: “Since the data was obtained by a third-party source, it isn’t an official count of Google+ users. The company hasn’t released any public metrics around the number of people who have signed up for Google+. A Google spokesperson declined to comment about the accuracy of Allen’s information. – However, if the information is accurate, it means Google+ is one of the fastest-growing social networks, ever.“
Gerrit Eicker 06:49 on 15. July 2011 Permalink |
Larry Page: “Google+ is still only in field trial with limited access as we scale the system – Users have to be invited, sign up with a profile in order to use it – However, the growth on Google+ has been great–and I’m excited to release some new metrics for you today – Over 10M people have joined Google+ – Great achievement for the team – There’s also a ton of activity – We are seeing over 1 billion items shared and received in a single day – Our +1 button is already all over the web – It’s being served 2.3 billion times a day – So while we have a lot of work still to do, we are really excited about our progress with Google+ – Google+ is also a great example of another focus of mine – beautiful products that are simple and intuitive to use and was actually was one of the first products to contain our new visual redesign.“
Gerrit Eicker 12:09 on 20. July 2011 Permalink |
Allen: “The viral growth of Google+ has slowed somewhat over the past few days, but my new-and-improved 1,000 surname model shows that more than 750,000 people joined the site on Monday, bringing the total user base to just under 18 million. … Google hasn’t started marketing Google+ through any of its other channels yet. More than a billion people worldwide use Google products, including its top rated search engine, YouTube, and Blogger. Chairman Eric Schmidt says the vision is to integrate Circles and sharing with all the other Google properties. When that happens, you will likely see millions of people joining Google+ every day for some period of time.”
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