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  • Gerrit Eicker 10:28 on 28. December 2011 Permalink
    Tags: +Identities, +Users, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Social Media Adoption, , , , ,   

    Google Plus Stats 

    Allen: Google Plus passes 62 million users, adds 625K new per day. 400M by end of 2012; http://eicker.at/GooglePlusStats

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    • Gerrit Eicker 10:28 on 28. December 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Allen: “Google+ Growth Accelerating. Passes 62 million users. Adding 625,000 new users per day. Prediction: 400 million users by end of 2012. – Google+ is adding new users at a very rapid pace. It may be the holidays, the TV commercials, the Android 4 signups, celebrity and brand appeal, or positive word of mouth, or a combination of all these factors, but there is no question that the number of new users signing up for Google+ each day has accelerated markedly in the past several weeks. – Each week my team from elance runs hundreds of queries on various surnames which we have been tracking since July. We revised our model based on the actual user announcements made by Google on July 13th and Oct 13th. … If this rate of new signups (625k daily) continues then Google+ will reach 100 million users on Feb. 25th and 200 million users on August 3. They will finish 2012 with 293 million users. – I expect the growth to continue to accelerate however. Google can continue to integrate Google+ into its other products and word of mouth will continue to build. … Based on the accelerated growth I’m seeing and all the dials and levers Google can still utilize, and the developer ecosystem that will be developed, I predict that 2012 is going to be a breakout year for Google+ and that it will end next year with more than 400 million users.

      TC: “Google+ now has more than 62 million users, according to Paul Allen, Ancestry.com founder and unofficial traffic analyst for Google’s social network. That’s not 62 million active users, though – a point that everyone covering these numbers seems to have missed. It’s just the number of total users. And specifically, it’s the number of new surnames that Allen’s team has tracked being created on the service. – Because Google has aggressively integrated G+ into many other properties, including its top navigation bar and the OneBox, one would expect a certain baseline amount of sign-ups from among the hundreds of millions of people using other Google products. … But there’s support out there for Allen’s latest numbers, from someone trying to answer the usage question. Last week, comScore told us that G+ had grown to 67 million monthly unique visitors in November, up 2 million from October. That’s significantly more than the 50 million total users that Allen reported at the end of the month. … Allen’s big conclusion, based on the most recent growth increases, is that the service could reach 400 million users by the end of 2012. If that turns out to be the case, I’m sure active usage will also be increasing. But the question remains the same: how many G+ users stay active?

      VB: “For a social network that was invite-only until July 2011, those numbers are not bad. However, Google+ has a long way to go if it wants to catch up to Facebook’s 800 million users. … A Google spokesperson told VentureBeat that the company does not ‘have any additional metrics to provide based on Paul Allen’s estimates,’ but that more than 40 million people have signed up for the social network. That number comes from Google’s latest earnings call which took place on October 13. … In an attempt to garner more attention, Google+ rolled out a new ad campaign over the holiday season. The ads featured NBA annoucers and the Muppets to highlight Hangouts and other cool features of the social network. Perhaps the ads were enough to remind people that yes, Google+ does still exist and help it nab those 12 million extra users for December.

      TC: “For Google+, User Count Is A Journey Not A Race – That’s a good thing because Google+ missed the starting gun. And its ‘invite only’ launch strategy saw all its disconnect users flailing independently. But in the long run that might not matter much, because Google+ doesn’t need a critical mass or tons of engagement. It needs signups so it can get its identity layer under users of its other products. That way it can turn everyone’s searches, mapping, email, and more into fuel for its ad targeting engine. … With enough cajoling, users are registering even if their social network needs are already being met by Facebook and Twitter. – Google may never beat those services in terms of engagement with a content stream. … If it takes Google 4 years to start catching up to Facebook in terms of user count, so be it. The company has plenty of money to burn so it can take this long-term approach. What matters isn’t when, but if if it can eventually grow its registration base large enough for Google+ to produce ROI.

  • Gerrit Eicker 08:25 on 11. October 2011 Permalink
    Tags: , +Users, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,   

    Google Plus: Failure to Launch? 

    Chitika: Google Plus growth spurt short lived after it went public.What’s its USP? http://eicker.at/GooglePlusLaunch

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    • Gerrit Eicker 08:25 on 11. October 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Chitika: “Mid-morning September 20th, Google+ officially entered public beta, drumming up the level of interest of the site far and wide across the web. Although able to boast 25 million unique visitors after only four weeks of operation, Google’s newest attempt at a social network saw its user base dwindle as shown by a recent article from Chitika Insights. … Reportedly, Google+ saw a surge in traffic of over 1200% due to the additional publicity, but the increased user base was only temporary, as was projected in an earlier insights post. – The data shows that, on the day of its public debut, Google+ traffic skyrocketed to peak levels. But, soon after, traffic fell by over 60% as it returned to its normal, underwhelming state. It would appear that although high levels of publicity were able to draw new traffic to Google+, few of them saw reason to stay. … The supply of users for social media sites is limited. To survive you must stand out and provide a service that others do not. – Features unique to your site must be just that – unique and difficult to duplicate – if they are not, the competitive advantage quickly disappears.

      RWW: “We at RWW can informally corroborate Chitika’s findings that interest in Google Plus is on the wane. Our monthly referrals from there are down 38% since their peak, while Facebook referrals are up 67% and Twitter referrals up 51% over the same period. – As we reported last week, the +1 button isn’t gaining much traction, either. Despite all the new features and responsiveness to user feedback, Google Plus just doesn’t seem to be catching on. There’s only so much time in a day for social networking, and this newcomer isn’t converting many users.

      Inquirer: “Google’s problem is not getting users in the first place, it seems, but rather keeping them after they have arrived. For now it appears that a lot of users are merely curious about Google+, but return to the tried and tested format of Facebook when the lustre fades. … While the jury is still out on which firm will win this battle, there’s no denying that the intense competition could make both social networks considerably better than they were before.

      RWW: “Many people say they don’t find [Google Plus] compelling though. We asked on Twitter and on Facebook and most people said that the value proposition was too unclear, that it wasn’t valuable enough to warrant the investment of time relative to the already heavy burden of Twitter and Facebook engagement. Google knows it needs to make changes to the service to increase its user retention. But you know who else has always struggled with new user retention? Twitter!

      UG: “While this is interesting, Chitika doesn’t provide much information about its data-gathering technique. Because it is an ad-network, one may suspect that it can see the referrer (Google+) to sites using its ad code. If that’s the case (and I’m not saying that it is), the method is not very accurate but one could argue that they should be able to pick up a (very) gross trend snapshot.The bottom-line is that Google+ saw a traffic spike during its public opening and that it subsequently faded, and I can believe that. This sound quite ‘normal’ to me, though. Secondly, second-hand data sampling on a 10-day period is hardly enough to tell if Google+ is a ‘failure to launch’ as Chitika puts it, so I think that there’s a bit of over-dramatization here. – It will take months (or years) and many evolution before we realize how well (or not) Google+ does/did. In the meantime, and as long as we don’t know how this data was measured, I would advise taking this with a grain of salt.”

  • Gerrit Eicker 08:34 on 24. September 2011 Permalink
    Tags: +Users, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,   

    Google Plus Growth 

    Google Plus is joined by millions of new users since its opening, according to Paul Allen; http://eicker.at/GooglePlusGrowth

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    • Gerrit Eicker 08:34 on 24. September 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Allen: “My team just completed a new round of counting Google+ users by surname. And I have updated my model. Our sampling of 400 uncommon surnames in the U.S. also reflects usage in many other countries, since the list of 400 includes names that are popular in India, Germany, Italy, France, Japan, and many other countries. … On September 9, our model showed 28.7 million users – This morning, our model shows 37.8 million users, with most of the growth coming in the last 2 days – By adding a fudge factor (see below) to account for private user profiles and for non-Roman surnames (both of which are totally overlooked by our surname counting model), my current estimate is 43.4 million usersMy earlier model… which proved to be very accurate in the first 2-3 weeks, did not address either private profiles or non-Roman alphabet. According to FindPeopleOnPlus.com, there are substantial numbers of users from countries like Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, and many other countries, which my surname counting approach does not include. So I have decided to add a 5% privacy fudge factor and a 10% non-Roman alphabet fudge factor in my Google+ model. I’ll need to develop a way to actually calculate those percentages somehow, rather than just guess on them.”

      SEL: “A Google+ post by Paul Allen, founder of ancestry.com and a self-proclaimed ‘unofficial Google+ statistician’, shows significant growth of Google’s social network since opening to the public. These growth rates were only first seen during the first few weeks of field testing when the user numbers were very low. In terms of the current growth spurt Allen states: ‘it is clear that Google+ is absolutely exploding – 30% growth in just 2 days and with a base of nearly 30 million members already.’ … So what does this mean? Google+ may be cementing themselves as a credible social network, but the mass exodus from Facebook just isn’t happening.

      eWeek: “Facebook now has 800 million users. Grumble as they might at the privacy and UI changes Facebook makes every few months, the users that comprise the vast social network stick around. – That’s user engagement, and by extension social advertising opportunities, Google can only aspire to at this stage.

      UG: “With Facebook’s recent introduction of the Timeline profile, the two networks are going to be quite different from one other – which is a good thing in my opinion. After all why would anybody want to use two of the same thing? Google is keeping it simple and minimalistic, while Facebook seems to be going in the opposite direction by letting users add even more about themselves on the network. Both services have their merits, so I guess we’ll continue to see users using Facebook and Google+ instead of completely migrating to one.

  • Gerrit Eicker 08:40 on 3. September 2011 Permalink
    Tags: +Users, , , , , , , , , Pageview, , Session, Session Calculation, Session Definition, Sessions, , , , , Visitor, , , , ,   

    Google Analytics: New Source Starts New Session 

    Google Analytics now starts a new session when any traffic source value for a user changes; http://eicker.at/GASession

     
    • Gerrit Eicker 08:40 on 3. September 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Google: “Beginning today [August 11, 2011], there will be a small change [sic!] in how sessions are calculated in Google Analytics. We think this update will lead to a clearer understanding of website interactions. We also want to explain how these changes might impact your reports. … Currently, Google Analytics ends a session when: More than 30 minutes have elapsed between pageviews for a single visitor. At the end of a day. When a visitor closes their browser. – If any of these events occur, then the next pageview from the visitor will start a new session. – In the new model, Google Analytics will end a session when: More than 30 minutes have elapsed between pageviews for a single visitor. At the end of a day. When any traffic source value for the user changes. Traffic source information includes: utm_source, utm_medium, utm_term, utm_content, utm_id, utm_campaign, and gelid. – As before, if any of these events occur, then the next pageview from the user will be the start of a new session.”

      Kaushik: “A minor version of the butterfly effect occurred, one small change in a part of the system caused a few other smaller changes in other parts of the system. Some people freaked out. Others wondered what the fuss was all about. Still others wondered what they were going to eat for lunch. :) … Change is always hard to accept, especially when it comes with even the slightest impact on status quo. But if there has to be progress in life, then change is just the thing that puts us in a higher, more optimal orbit. It makes a better existence possible. – Go give the new data and reports a try. Thinking in a new way will require effort and brain power. But real happiness is worth it.”

      Whitaker: “As with any model, it’s not so much about being ‘right’ or ‘wrong’, but whether the model is useful. Does your model help you understand your customers a little bit better and make smarter decisions? If there is a better model then you should change to that one. – Ironically, the data causing higher visit numbers was there all along! It was just hidden due to the way Google Analytics used to count visits, pageviews, etc. Anyone remember 0 visits? … Finally, I am not a huge fan of visit-based metrics anyway. Who cares if your dear customers take 1 or 2 visits before placing an order? The main thing is that they accomplished their goals during each visit, i.e. browse in the first visit, have a cup of tea, then buy in the second visit.

  • Gerrit Eicker 10:27 on 12. July 2011 Permalink
    Tags: +Users, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Projection, , , , , , , , ,   

    Google Plus Adoption 

    Allen: I project [surname-based analysis] that Google [Plus] will easily pass 10 million users tomorrow; http://eicker.at/GooglePlusAdoption

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    • Gerrit Eicker 10:28 on 12. July 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Allen: “In brief, here is my model: The surname Cooke is the #996 most popular surname in the US. The Census Bureau estimates that there are 29844 Cookes in the US. I found 74 Cookes on Google+ so far. That would be .002479% of the total Cookes in the US. Taking the official current US population estimate of 311,677,540 and multiplying it by .00002479, you get 772,823 Google+ users, if all other surnames had the same distribution in the US as they do on Google+.”

      Allen: “Today I squeezed in enough time before and after our local parade, and before our Fourth of July picnic to update my model and do a much better analysis. I increased the sample size from 50 surnames to 79 (I would have done 100 but ran out of time), and I split out users from the US and from outside the US. I had to look at hundreds of profiles to determine US vs. non-US.”

      Allen: “My surname-based analysis shows that the number of Google+ users worldwide reached 7.3 million yesterday (July 10) – up from 1.7 million users on July 4th. That is a 350% increase in six days. The userbase is growing so quickly that it is challenging for me to keep up, since the number of users of any given surname (even the rare ones I am tracking) seems to be climbing every day. – More impressive than last week’s growth is the astonishing growth in users from yesterday at mid-day to tonight – a 30% jump. My latest estimate tonight shows approximately 9.5 million users. This suggests that 2.2 million people have joined Google+ in the past 32-34 hours. – I project that Google will easily pass 10 million users tomorrow and could reach 20 million user by this coming weekend if they keep the Invite Button available. As one G+ user put it, it is easy to underestimate the power of exponential growth.

    • Gerrit Eicker 09:00 on 13. July 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Allen (in a comment): “My company is running a large survey of Facebook users (we have access to millions of Facebook users through our Facebook apps and fan pages) and I’ll be posting the results tomorrow. Facebook investors and employees will be very happy to see that the vast majority of their active users are happy at Facebook, and most of them haven’t even heard of Google+ yet. So even though Google’s growth is staggering, there is a huge loyal Facebook following who may not see a need to switch. That’s why I characterize this as a 15-round heavyweight bout. The fight is not going to be over anytime soon.

      RWW: “Google Plus’s estimated 20 million also pales in comparison to Facebook’s 750 million, half of which still log on to Facebook any given day. Google Plus, meanwhile, is seeing a lot of engagement too, but it’s still the new shiny toy of the Internet digerati, who often glom onto and obsess over the latest hip service until an even hipper one comes around. – But Google knows it needs to make Google Plus a regular habit once the new car smell wears off. According to Mark Striebeck, Google’s Engineering Manager for Gmail, the company is planning to integrate the service into Gmail (and wants your ideas for that). While Google’s previous attempt at merging social with Gmail (i.e. Google Buzz) was essentially a failure, Gmail could still serve as a large built-in user base for the emerging social network, assuming the integrations are thoughtful, useful and capable of enhancing the core Gmail offering itself. … Current estimates put the Gmail user base at around 200 million. Although not all Gmail users will join Google Plus, it’s a large, captive market for Google to get its hooks in.”

      VB: “Since the data was obtained by a third-party source, it isn’t an official count of Google+ users. The company hasn’t released any public metrics around the number of people who have signed up for Google+. A Google spokesperson declined to comment about the accuracy of Allen’s information. – However, if the information is accurate, it means Google+ is one of the fastest-growing social networks, ever.

    • Gerrit Eicker 06:49 on 15. July 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Larry Page: “Google+ is still only in field trial with limited access as we scale the system – Users have to be invited, sign up with a profile in order to use it – However, the growth on Google+ has been great–and I’m excited to release some new metrics for you today – Over 10M people have joined Google+ – Great achievement for the team – There’s also a ton of activity – We are seeing over 1 billion items shared and received in a single day – Our +1 button is already all over the web – It’s being served 2.3 billion times a day – So while we have a lot of work still to do, we are really excited about our progress with Google+ – Google+ is also a great example of another focus of mine – beautiful products that are simple and intuitive to use and was actually was one of the first products to contain our new visual redesign.

    • Gerrit Eicker 12:09 on 20. July 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Allen: “The viral growth of Google+ has slowed somewhat over the past few days, but my new-and-improved 1,000 surname model shows that more than 750,000 people joined the site on Monday, bringing the total user base to just under 18 million.Google hasn’t started marketing Google+ through any of its other channels yet. More than a billion people worldwide use Google products, including its top rated search engine, YouTube, and Blogger. Chairman Eric Schmidt says the vision is to integrate Circles and sharing with all the other Google properties. When that happens, you will likely see millions of people joining Google+ every day for some period of time.”

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